This brief, developed under SLYCAN Trust's EU Work Programme, examines how the European Commission's recent omnibus packages—covering sustainability regulations, agricultural policy, chemicals, and investment rules—are fundamentally recalibrating the EU's policy framework and raising critical questions about the future of the European Green Deal.

Since its launch in 2019, the Green Deal has served as the EU's comprehensive response to climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution, backed by ambitious legal commitments including 55% emissions reduction by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2050. However, evolving economic and geopolitical pressures have prompted a notable shift: green objectives are increasingly subordinated to competitiveness, security, and short-term cost relief across EU institutions and Member States.

This recalibration creates growing risks for transparency and accountability around green and just transition finance. While climate goals remain formally embedded in EU strategies, legislative and budgetary realities reveal difficult trade-offs. The omnibus approach—bundling multiple reforms together—reflects both an effort to streamline regulation and a strategic reframing of priorities that may dilute environmental safeguards.

Current developments suggest a hollowing out of the Green Deal's original ambition. The central question is whether the EU's legal and financial instruments continue to align with its climate commitments, or whether its public pronouncements are becoming increasingly disconnected from policy reality. Environmental objectives and competitiveness agendas need not compete—but without robust monitoring mechanisms and political will, the EU risks falling short of its transformative vision for a climate-neutral, socially just Europe.